Elections, GLPs, and a post-pandemic world: Thermo on the future of biotech investment

At November’s Wolfe Research Healthcare Conference 2024 in New York, Marc Casper,CEO of Thermo Fisher Scientific, spoke with Doug Schenkel of Wolfe Research about biotech investments in 2024 and the future of the industry in the US after the election of Donald Trump to a second non-consecutive term as president. 

Casper said that over the first three quarters of the year, market conditions in biotechnology have seen modest improvements, leading to optimism for the future.  

“When I think about the fourth quarter and at least what our outlook is, we [will] returnto organic growth,” he said, stating that the company anticipates about 2.5% growth during that timeframe. “It gives us a solid sort of exit momentum going into the future.” 

Casper furthermore expressed optimism about the upcoming Trump administration and how it will handle business and employment in the country, despite Schenkel pointing out that company shares dropped by almost 10% since Trump announced plans to nominate Robert F Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS.)  

Kennedy has been an outspoken critic of vaccines and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), while also promoting alternatives for Ozempic (semaglutide), a glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) medicine used to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity.  

“For half the price of Ozempic, we could purchase regeneratively raised, organic food for every American, three meals a day, and a gym membership, for every obese American,” said Kennedy in September.  

Meanwhile, Casper credits the rise of Ozempic and other GLP-1 drugs for the industry’s current success. “There's nothing better than the success of GLP-1s,” he told Schenkel. He also praised novel drugs for Alzheimer’s disease and cancer, stating that it’s an exciting time to be in the industry. “If you have great science that meets an unmet medical need, [it creates] enormous market opportunity.”  

Casper acknowledged uncertainty with China regarding Department of Health & Human Services (HHS) policy, stating that the country accounts for 8% of Thermo’s revenue. Trump has proposed new tariffs on goods imported from China, which if enacted could impact the biopharmaceutical industry in addition to the supply-chain changes anticipated from the impending BIOSECURE Act. “For the 8% of our revenue that we serve in China, a very large percentage today is manufactured in China or manufactured in other countries around the world that are not likely to be subject to any tariff-related activity,” he said.  

“I'm excited for the position that we have as we enter the year. And there's no company that's better positioned with a better track record of navigating volatility or the unknowns better than Thermo Fisher.” 

Quotes have been lightly edited for clarity.