Increase in late-stage demand leads to ‘more shots on goal,’ Avid

Market dynamics have reduced the early-stage pipeline but increasing demand for more work intensive later-phase projects is driving revenues for Avid Bioservices.

For the full year ending April 30 2023, Avid Bioservices clocked in sales of $149.3 million, a record-high for the contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) and a 25% jump on fiscal year 2022 sales.

Some of this was attributed to capital expenditure projects coming online, providing extra mammalian capacity for biologics during the year. Moreover, when Avid’s expanded network is fully operational – including an outstanding gene therapy plant under construction – the firm expects revenues to hit $400 million.

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DmitriyDemidovich

But during the firm’s financial call, CEO Nick Green said the growing number of backlog orders are coming from later-stage projects, driven by changing market dynamics.

“Reduced resources from investors being applied to early phase customers has certainly resulted in lower proportions of preclinical and early phase projects in our backlog. However, the focus of customers on late-phase and pre-commercial projects provides longer-term upside,” he told stakeholders.

“The increase in late-phase projects also have the effect of extending the project duration and associated revenues. Quite simply, there’s significantly more work involved in the late-stage projects than there is in an early phase project.”

During the year, late-phase projects defined internally as Phase III and process performance qualification (PPQ) campaigns increased by approximately 34%.

He continued: “This also means in the medium term, we have in effect more shots on goal. By this, I mean, we hope the increase in late-phase projects will lead to an increase in the number of BLAs being filed for products manufactured with Avid, and we would expect the resulted increase in commercial products and revenues, assuming their subsequent approval”

However, Green was conscious of the risk posed by a reduced number of early phase projects. “Each quarter, we would typically expect to register new customer wins with early phase projects that can be recognized in the short-term, i.e., upcoming quarters.”

While he said the pull of commercial projects more than compensate the reduction of these earlier projects for Avid, he noted the potential impact this has on the speed at which the firm can attract new customers.

“It is as a result of this level of uncertainty as to when exactly funding will return to the broader biotech sector, and the impact it has on our short-term revenue. We have felt compelled to broaden our guidance for fiscal 2024 to $145 million to $165 million.”